نقش صندوق ثروت ملی در مدیریت درآمدهای نفتی: شواهدی از یک مدل DSGE دوکشوری
کلمات کلیدی:
صندوق ثروت ملی, مدل DSGE دوکشوری, مدیریت درآمدهای نفتیچکیده
هدف این پژوهش بررسی نقش صندوق ثروت ملی در تعدیل انتقال شوکهای نفتی و کاهش نوسانات متغیرهای کلان اقتصادی در یک اقتصاد صادرکننده نفت و شریک تجاری واردکننده نفت است. در این مطالعه، یک مدل تعادل عمومی پویای تصادفی (DSGE) دوکشوری در چارچوب کینزی جدید طراحی و کالیبره شده است که شامل یک اقتصاد صادرکننده نفت و دارای صندوق ثروت ملی و یک اقتصاد واردکننده نفت میباشد. دو سناریو بررسی شده است: در سناریوی اول، درآمدهای نفتی مستقیماً وارد بودجه دولت میشود و در سناریوی دوم، این درآمدها در صندوق ثروت ملی ذخیره شده و تنها بخشی از بازدهی آن به بودجه منتقل میگردد. مدل با استفاده از دادههای سالانه و روش کالیبراسیون حل شده است. نتایج توابع واکنش آنی نشان میدهد وجود صندوق ثروت ملی دامنه نوسانات تولید، مصرف، سرمایهگذاری و تورم را در مواجهه با شوکهای تولید نفت، قیمت نفت و تغییر سهم صادرات نفت بهطور معناداری کاهش میدهد. همچنین شدت انتقال شوکهای نفتی به اقتصاد واردکننده نفت نیز در حضور صندوق کاهش مییابد. صندوق ثروت ملی بهعنوان یک ابزار تثبیتگر مالی، با هموارسازی مخارج دولت و تفکیک بودجه از نوسانات درآمدهای نفتی، موجب افزایش ثبات اقتصاد کلان در هر دو کشور میشود.
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حق نشر 2025 Javid Bahrami (Corresponding author); Marjan Soltani (Author)

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