بررسی تأثیر پاندمی کووید-۱۹ بر سهم بازار بانک‌های دولتی و خصوصی در ایران

شهرام  کیان‌مهر; محمود لاری دشت‌بیاض; مهدی  صالحی

Authors

Shahram Kiyanmehr Department of accounting, Qae.C., Islamic Azad University, Qaenat, Iran Author
Mahmoud Lari Dashtbayaz Professor, Department of Accounting, Faculty of Administrative Sciences and Economics, Mashhad, Iran Corresponding author https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8233-026X
Mehdi Salehi Department of Accounting, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran Author

Keywords:

COVID-19, Bank Market Share, State-Owned Banks, Private Banks, Iranian Banking System

Abstract

This study aims to examine the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the market share of Iranian banks and to compare the performance of state-owned and private banks during the crisis period. This applied study adopts a descriptive–survey design and integrates primary survey data from 540 managers, employees, and customers of Iranian banks with secondary financial data from 17 banks listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange for the period 2016–2022. Data were analyzed using structural equation modeling, panel and dynamic panel regression (GMM), and complementary statistical tests to ensure robustness of inference. Hypothesis testing indicates that COVID-19 exerted a statistically significant negative effect on overall bank market share, with a considerably stronger adverse impact on private banks. The interaction effects further reveal that during the pandemic period, the market share of state-owned banks was significantly higher than that of private banks. Both SEM and dynamic panel estimations confirm these results at the 95% and 99% confidence levels. The findings demonstrate that government support mechanisms, policy-driven lending, and higher public confidence substantially strengthened the competitive position of state-owned banks during the crisis, while private banks experienced greater vulnerability due to resource constraints and higher risk aversion. Moreover, digital banking investment emerged as a critical moderating factor in preserving bank market share.

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